Probability/Impact Matrix Mural Template

Probability/Impact Matrix Mural Template

Does your team need an easy but effective tool for discussing the impacts of the future? Would you benefit from a template that guides an action-oriented conversation about emerging trends? The Probability/Impact Matrix (PIM) is an incredibly versatile and accessible foresight tool. It provides the platform for rich dialogue about the future, and it’s a highly effective “pulse check” to understand how your team perceives the future. The mechanism of this tool is straightforward: Assess the probability and impact of a trend in a given year and plot it on the matrix. Repeat with multiple trends and multiple time horizons. PIM can be used with a small or large team, with coworkers or senior leadership, and can even be used for self-reflection on the future. Have an open discussion about the future with your team today!



Additional information

This resource is a Mural template. If you do not already have a free or paid Mural account, you should do so before attempting to use this resource. Upon checkout, you will receive an email with a link to the template, where you can create a Mural canvas from the template. The template contains everything you need to conduct PIM successfully. You will find the PIM matrix, the front and back of all 30 Creator Economy trend cards, and post-exercise questions for reflection. There are both facilitation notes and participant instructions, as well as video guides of Yvette Montero Salvatico and Frank Spencer facilitating the tool that can be played at the facilitator’s discretion.  


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Copyright and Attribution Information

Natural Foresight®, Wicked Opportunities®, Holoptic Foresight Dynamics®, and The Futures School® are registered trademarks of Kedge, LLC (dba TFSX). We are excited to offer our holistic framework for thinking and acting on the future – Natural Foresight® – as an open source resource for everyone. While TFSX owns and retains copyright and trademark for the Natural Foresight® Framework, we grant you the right to make use of the materials (products) as they are, or in modified form. You may translate, modify, print, network, reformat, or change the materials in any way providing that you meet the terms of the license. If you use or amend or incorporate content from the Natural Foresight® Framework, which is provided under a Creative Commons license, use the following attribution: Natural Foresight® by TFSX is licensed under Attribution 4.0 International We would be very interested to see copies of, or links to, derivative works. If you would like to share these with us, please email details to